Analysis of the Coupling Coordination Relationship Between Green Finance and High-Quality Economic Development in China and Its Influencing Factors

Abstract

Drawing on panel data from 31 Chinese provinces over the period 2010–2023, this study constructs evaluation indices for green finance and high-quality economic development. The entropy weight method, coupling coordination degree model, and Dagum Gini coefficient are employed to examine the spatiotemporal synergies and regional disparities between the two systems. Findings reveal that, although both system indices exhibit growth in overall development levels, a marked pattern of “relative lag in high-quality economic development” has emerged since 2018. With respect to coordination status, national coupling coordination fluctuates and remains suboptimal, characterised by “high coupling but low coordination”; by 2023, the system had regressed to a state of “severe disequilibrium”. Spatially, a fundamental shift occurred after 2018, yielding a new pattern of differentiation: western and northeastern regions overtaking others, an inverted U-shaped decline in the east, and subsidence in the central region. Although the overall Gini coefficient has narrowed significantly, inter-regional disparities now constitute the predominant source of spatial imbalance, with their contribution rising to 65.38%. Economic development level, industrial structure optimisation, and government intervention emerge as the principal positive drivers of coordination. The analysis concludes that structural lag and pronounced spatial heterogeneity persist in the synergy between the two domains; policy priorities should therefore shift from “developing green finance” to “empowering high-quality development”, complemented by differentiated inter-regional coordination strategies.