The Impact of Retirement on Urban Residents’ Participation in Commercial Pension Insurance:An Empirical Analysis Based on Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design

Abstract

As China’s population aging accelerates, developing the third pillar of commercial pension insurance has become an important policy issue. However, the participation rate among urban residents remains persistently low. Existing studies mostly focus on static factors and overlook the dynamic impact of retirement—a critical life event. Based on data from the 2019 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS), this paper employs a fuzzy regression discontinuity design (FRDD), using the statutory retirement age as the policy cutoff, to precisely identify the causal effect of retirement on urban male residents aged 50–70 and their participation in commercial pension insurance. The study further examines the underlying mechanisms from three dimensions: income level, risk preference, and financial literacy. The results show that retirement significantly reduces the probability of urban residents participating in commercial pension insurance, decreasing the participation rate by 12.1 percentage points under the optimal bandwidth. Mechanism analysis reveals that retirement exerts a dual inhibitory effect by lowering residents’ income levels and risk preferences. Although increased leisure time after retirement improves financial literacy and generates a certain positive effect, this positive influence is offset by the negative effects of income constraints and increased risk aversion. This paper provides rigorous empirical evidence on the causal relationship between retirement and commercial pension insurance participation, offering important policy implications for improving the third pillar of the pension system.