Process-Tracing the Shift in UK’s China Policy Post-2020

Abstract

Over the past decade, Sino-British relations have shifted significantly - from the so-called “Golden Era” of 2015 to a period marked by growing strategic tensions. This paper employs a process-tracing method and a mid-level national security framework to investigate the causal mechanisms behind this policy transformation, following the logic that UK’s focus on China has gradually shifted from economic cooperation to national security concerns. This shift followed a sequential logic: it began with a series of triggering events in 2020 - including the COVID-19 pandemic, the Huawei ban, and the enactment of the Hong Kong National Security Law - which catalysed the development of a coherent policy framework as outlined in the Integrated Review 2021. This Review then laid the foundation for UK’s subsequent domestic legislative practices and enhanced multilateral security cooperation with other states, especially through the “Indo-Pacific Tilt” strategy, culminating in an overall transformation of its China policy. However, this process is not totally dominated by the UK itself, but driven by a combination of domestic political pressures, external influence - mainly from the US - and its rising anxieties over China’s growing global presence. These dynamics reflect the UK’s diminishing strategic autonomy in foreign policymaking and its relative decline in global power.