A Study on Asset Price and Risk Management Based on Geometric Brownian Motion
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Keywords
ZYNP, GBM, stock price forecast, risk management
Abstract
In the environment of downward interest rates, some financial assets have attracted the attention of investors because they can obtain excess returns, but behind the excess returns are risks and potential losses that cannot be ignored. Moreover, whether to invest in industry-leading individual stocks or to buy industry index stocks has become a hot topic in current academia. In this study, ZYNP (002448) was the research object, and through comparative analysis with ETF (516110), the Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) was used to calculate the expected price of ZYNP and estimate the stock price. The results show that in a downward interest rate environment, ZYNP can be overallocated, and ZYNP has stronger interest rate sensitivity. The expected stock price on December 31, 2025, is 10.32–10.79 yuan. This study provides an empirical basis for market investors to reasonably and effectively avoid market risk.
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