Consumption Behavior of the Silver-Haired Population and Market Demand Prediction

Abstract

With the acceleration of global population aging, the silver economy has emerged as a crucial engine driving social and economic development. This study, based on market data for China’s silver economy from 2016 to 2024, constructs a multifaceted statistical modeling system. From dual perspectives of society and individuals, it uncovers the developmental patterns and market characteristics of the silver economy. Multiple linear regression, K-Means clustering, and random forest methods are employed to form a multidimensional analytical framework, overcoming the limitations of traditional studies that rely on single methodologies. The findings reveal that the scale of the silver economy market is positively correlated with the digital economy market size and the national proportion of the elderly population, while negatively correlated with the year-end number of participants in basic medical insurance. Similarly, from an individual perspective, the silver economy market scale is positively correlated with residents’ health literacy levels and per capita disposable income. For health-oriented consumer groups, emphasis should be placed on strengthening the layout of medical and health product lines; for era-oriented consumer groups, age-appropriate content marketing strategies need optimization; and for market-oriented consumer groups, the supply of cost-effective goods should be enhanced. Health needs and age-appropriate services are core drivers of elderly consumption behavior, suggesting that enterprises should prioritize layouts in these areas. The digital economy and the proportion of the elderly population are key drivers of the silver economy, whereas basic medical insurance exhibits a negative effect by suppressing demand for market-oriented services.