Impact of Energy Transition on Regional Carbon Emissions: Evidence from China

Abstract

Against the backdrop of global climate change and China’s commitment to carbon reduction, energy transition has become an important pathway toward low-carbon development. Using panel data from 26 Chinese provinces between 2013 and 2022, this study investigates how regional energy transition affects carbon emissions. An evaluation framework covering three dimensions—cleanliness, security, and efficiency—is constructed, with indicator weights determined through the entropy method. The development levels of the three subsystems are measured and further integrated through a coupling coordination model to assess the overall progress of energy transition and its evolution over time. Regression analysis is then employed to examine the relationship between energy transition and carbon dioxide emissions. The results suggest that China’s energy transition has generally advanced during the study period, although the development of different subsystems remains uneven. The relationship between energy transition and carbon emissions follows an inverted U-shaped pattern. At relatively low levels of transition, carbon emissions continue to increase, whereas the emission-reduction effect becomes more evident as the transition deepens, eventually contributing to a decline in emissions. The impacts are not uniform across regions and differ according to urbanization level, economic development, and coastal–inland location. By examining both the evolution of energy transition and its environmental consequences, this study offers additional evidence on the role of energy transition in reducing carbon emissions and provides implications for region-specific low-carbon development under China’s dual-carbon strategy.